Phase 1
Strategic Shock
Complete
Operation phases
Approaching ThresholdPhase 2
Counterforce Degradation
Current
Phase 3
Regime Destabilization
Upcoming
Phase 4
Political Revolution
Upcoming
Phase 2 totalCounterforce Degradation
89–94%gate 92–96
Cumulative capability-degradation estimate. The gate marks the threshold ceiling; the phase is met only when the entire current band clears it.
Capability lanes
Past floorCurrent bandThreshold zone
Naval disruptionThreshold Met
76–87%gate ~60%
Air defensesThreshold Met
85–94%gate 70%
Missile degradationPassing Threshold
78–88%gate 80%
Command networkPassing Threshold
67–81%gate 70%
Drone degradationPassing Threshold
59–72%gate 70%
Underground sitesApproaching Threshold
34–49%gate 50%
What changed
Jul 21, 2026 UTCHold day
New aviation targets, but no verified capability breakpoint
Air defenses · heldMissile degradation · heldDrone degradation · heldCommand network · heldNaval disruption · heldUnderground sites · heldPhase 2 total · held
Aircraft hangars are not a tracked capability lane, while operations centers, drone storage, logistics, and maritime targets overlap categories already scored. The public reporting does not justify another percentage increase. No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
U.S. Central Command — CENTCOM reported strikes on military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.Associated Press — AP reported the eleventh consecutive night of strikes, continued Iranian attacks, and unsuccessful diplomatic efforts to restore a ceasefire.
Full notes
Air defenses · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
Command network · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
Drone degradation · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
Missile degradation · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
Naval disruption · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
Underground sites · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
Phase 2 total · heldno change
No fresh source-backed capability breakpoint was recorded for this lane.
The regime shifts from sustained counter-strike toward residual pressure, proxies, and internal controlPartial
Iran has increasingly combined internal control and indirect pressure with direct state action, but it has not completed a durable shift away from sustained counter-strike.
Underground launch and command nodes show a declining ability to regenerate attacksPartial
Repeated strikes against command, logistics, communications, storage, and launch-support systems support partial degradation, but Iran continues to regenerate meaningful attacks.
Drone attacks fall to sporadic harassment rather than coordinated wavesNot yet
Iran continues to demonstrate the ability to conduct coordinated one-way attack-drone operations during active hostilities.
Maritime coercion loses strategic effectNot yet
Iran continues to retain strategically meaningful coercive leverage over shipping and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Multiple consecutive days with no meaningful missile salvosNot yet
There has not been a sustained period during active hostilities in which Iran was unable or unwilling to conduct meaningful missile salvos.
Next phase triggers
- Partial
The regime shifts from sustained counter-strike toward residual pressure, proxies, and internal control
Iran has increasingly combined internal control and indirect pressure with direct state action, but it has not completed a durable shift away from sustained counter-strike.
- Partial
Underground launch and command nodes show a declining ability to regenerate attacks
Repeated strikes against command, logistics, communications, storage, and launch-support systems support partial degradation, but Iran continues to regenerate meaningful attacks.
- Not yet
Drone attacks fall to sporadic harassment rather than coordinated waves
Iran continues to demonstrate the ability to conduct coordinated one-way attack-drone operations during active hostilities.
- Not yet
Maritime coercion loses strategic effect
Iran continues to retain strategically meaningful coercive leverage over shipping and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Not yet
Multiple consecutive days with no meaningful missile salvos
There has not been a sustained period during active hostilities in which Iran was unable or unwilling to conduct meaningful missile salvos.